KEY POINTS
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Both the U.S. and Canada are positioned for growth, driven by technological, energy, and infrastructure investments, alongside rising housing needs.
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Despite optimism, construction job gains lagged in 2025; the U.S. rose only 0.2% and Canada fell 0.1%, though heavy civil work and British Columbia performed better.
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U.S. housing starts hit post-pandemic lows, while Canada’s overall totals improved slightly, masking steep declines in Toronto but strong gains in Montreal and western cities.
Market Strength Building in Both Countries
There are solid reasons to expect near-term strength in the U.S. and Canadian construction markets.
In the U.S., rapid technological progress and supportive federal policies are driving major investments in semiconductor fabrication, AI-related data centers, and energy infrastructure, with growing momentum toward nuclear power.
In Canada, federal and provincial governments are promoting “nation-building” projects that emphasize LNG export capacity, port expansions, and new mines for critical minerals required by the digital economy. Both nations recognize that housing supply must rise substantially to meet population needs, signaling a long-term boost in residential construction.
Employment Flat Despite Growth Potential
Yet, 2025 proved disappointing for overall construction performance, especially in employment. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, total U.S. private sector jobs in December 2025 rose just 0.4% year over year, and construction employment improved only 0.2%. Within construction, residential jobs slipped by 0.1%, nonresidential building grew 0.3%, heavy and civil engineering advanced 1.1%, and specialty trades were flat.
Average monthly U.S. job gains in 2025 were under 50,000, which is well below the 200,000 considered typical. Construction added barely over 1,000 positions per month. Manufacturing did worse; total employment fell 0.5% year over year, with durable goods suffering the most.
Canada’s total employment rose 1.1% over 2024, outperforming the U.S., but its construction sector contracted 0.1%. British Columbia was the standout at plus 6.6%. In contrast, Canada’s manufacturing jobs increased by 0.4%. In both countries, job growth centered on healthcare and social assistance, increasing by 2.3% in the U.S. and 3.0% in Canada.
Earnings improved moderately. In December 2025, U.S. private sector hourly wages rose 3.8% year over year, with construction matching that figure. Weekly earnings increased 3.8% overall and 3.9% in construction. Canada’s wage growth was slightly lower, at 3.4% hourly and 3.2% weekly.
Housing Starts Reveal Regional Contrasts
Housing activity revealed a sharper divide between the two nations. U.S. housing starts in November 2025 dropped to an annualized 1.246 million units, the lowest since the pandemic. Most analysts believe the country needs at least 1.5 million starts per year to meet demand.
Canada’s housing market also struggled but showed regional contrasts. Toronto’s starts from January to November plunged 36% from 2024, while Vancouver’s declined 5%. Elsewhere, the trend reversed: Montreal rose 54%, Calgary 17%, and Edmonton 16%. Nationwide, monthly average housing starts through November 2025 totaled 256,000 units, compared to 246,000 in 2024’s same period. Historically, the average in the early 2000s was around 200,000.
Overall, both the U.S. and Canadian construction sectors appear poised for significant expansion once delayed capital spending accelerates. Ample capacity exists to boost output, and when major technology and resource investments advance, the ensuing wave of construction activity will mark a strong upturn for both economies.
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