KEY POINTS
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Mark Carney’s first year as Prime Minister delivered Canada’s largest infrastructure pledge in over a decade, with the 2025 budget and new Major Projects Office targeting CAN$1 trillion to boost the economy and offset trade volatility.
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Triggered by tariff disruptions with the U.S., the plan directs major funding to housing, defense, infrastructure, and productivity to build long-term resilience.
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For U.S. contractors, this initiative could open cross-border opportunities in civil, housing, and industrial construction similar to Canada’s 2008-era infrastructure surge.
Mark Carney’s first year as Prime Minister has delivered the most ambitious infrastructure commitment Canada has seen in over a decade. The 2025 federal budget and creation of the Major Projects Office aim to catalyze CAN$1 trillion in total investment to counter trade volatility while expanding the domestic economy.
Like the U.S. Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), this massive commitment by our northern neighbor aims to modernize the economy and create long-term resilience. For U.S. contractors, this generational investment could potentially open doors, particularly for those with expertise in large-scale civil construction, single or multi-family housing, and industrial projects.
The strategy mirrors Canada’s last major infrastructure push. During the 2008 financial crisis, the government deployed tens of billions in spending that drove civil construction starts to record levels in the early 2010s. If current commitments translate to actual projects, the cross-border market could see a surge in construction demand similar to the previous boom.
Why The Canadian Initiatives Signal Opportunity
Canada’s infrastructure investment strategy was crafted across three administrations in the 2000s through programs such as the Municipal Rural Infrastructure Fund and federal fuel tax sharing.
Prime Minister Harper furthered these initiatives after taking office in 2006, committing significant investment to infrastructure in his early budgets. The global recession prompted additional federal response, including $4 billion in funding for new infrastructure. During the peak period, Civil construction starts averaged $46.5 billion annually from 2011 through 2014.
For comparison, the most recent four-year period from 2022 through 2025 averaged just $32.2 billion annually. This highlights the impact effective dispersal of federal funds can have on construction, creating significant amounts of additional opportunities for firms.
Tariffs Drive New Investment Wave
The current administration faces different circumstances but is pursuing similar objectives. In 2025, the United States imposed sweeping tariffs on Canada, including a blanket 25% levy alongside targeted duties on energy resources, minerals, aluminum, and steel. Canada responded with reciprocal measures, though both countries have since removed or exempted portions of these tariffs.
Trade disruption provided the catalyst for aggressive domestic investment. Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne framed Budget 2025 as “a plan to catalyze investments from provinces, territories, municipalities, Indigenous communities and the private sector.”
The budget did just that, providing significant federal funding promises to specific sectors. This includes $25 billion for housing, $30 billion for defense and security, $115 billion for major infrastructure, and $110 billion to drive productivity and competitiveness over five years. With such significant capital earmarked for major infrastructure and productivity, U.S. contractors specializing in transportation, energy, and industrial projects could find opportunities north of the border.
The scale of investment is generational, comparable to the Harper-era response, with the newly created Major Projects Office tasked with expediting approval for developments under review. In just three months, from September to November 2025, the office has already brought nearly $120 billion in projects under review.
What It Means for U.S. Contractors
Whether Canada reaches Harper-era construction levels will depend on execution. Federal funding promises create potential, but actual starts require coordination across federal, provincial, and municipal governments alongside private investment.
For construction firms and civil contractors, the investment wave creates potential opportunities concentrated in infrastructure, housing, and industrial projects tied to domestic capacity expansion.
Firms positioned in these sectors could face surging demand as federal funding reaches projects. Firms interested exploring potential opportunities should monitor developments from Canada’s Major Projects Office.
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