KEY POINTS
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The U.S. Expansion Index hit 1.07 in September 2025, a 7% yearly gain and second straight month of growth.
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Industrial activity nearly doubled to 1.99, while Military and Commercial expanded. However, the Educational, Residential, Community, and Medical sectors continued contracting.
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Only 13 states expanded, led by Arizona, Wyoming, and Oregon, highlighting megaproject-driven geographic concentration and widening regional differences.
Overall Performance
The US Expansion Index for September 2025 came in at 1.07, indicating a 7% increase in planned construction investment compared to the same period in the year prior. This marks the second consecutive month of year-over-year (YoY) expansion following three consecutive months of contractionary readings.
Select Sector Trends
September Industrial development led all sectors at 1.99, indicating a near doubling of future construction starts as compared to last year. Substantial industrial growth reflects ongoing efforts to expand domestic manufacturing capacity in the United States. The Military and Commercial sectors also saw meaningful growth at 1.24 and 1.14, respectively.
Educational, Residential, Community, and Medical sectors recorded significant contraction compared to September 2024, with all four categories registering readings below 0.85. These sectors have experienced several months of continuous contraction, indicating potentially sustained softness in these markets.
Geographic Highlights
State-level analysis reveals concentrated expansion patterns, with only 13 states achieving Expansion Index readings above 1.0. Among expanding states, Arizona recorded the highest reading at 5.34, followed by Wyoming at 2.85, and Oregon at 1.47. A large majority of states experienced contraction compared to September 2024, demonstrating the concentration of construction planning.
Megaprojects Behind Regional Disparities
This geographic concentration follows the increasing prevalence of megaprojects in the construction industry. These large-scale developments generate substantial construction spending within very narrow geographies, creating pronounced regional disparities in construction planning activity.
The ConstructConnect Expansion Index for September 2025 came in at 1.07, indicating a 7% increase in planned US construction investment compared to the same period in the year prior. Image: ConstructConnect
Growth Concentrated by Category and Region
The September data reveal concentration patterns in construction planning activity. With only 13 states achieving expansion and growth limited to Industrial, Military, and Commercial sectors, investment allocation demonstrates geographic and sector selectivity. This concentrated performance indicates that construction activity is increasingly driven by specific construction categories and select regional growth.
What is the Expansion Index?
The ConstructConnect Expansion Index compares the total dollar value of construction projects in planning for the current month to the value of projects in planning for that same calendar month in the prior year.
The Expansion Index measures the dollar volume of pre-bid projects in ConstructConnect’s extensive database for states and metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) across the United States and Provinces/Territories and census metropolitan areas (CMAs) in Canada. This reflects all stages of preparation prior to construction field-work at the beginning of any given month this year, versus what was calculated at the same time last year. The types of structures included in these calculations are multi-family residential, nonresidential building, and civil/heavy engineering.
An index value less than 1.0 indicates a market potential that is flat or declining, while an index value above 1.0 speaks of market potential that is increasing. An Index value of 2.0 or more indicates the market potential is significantly greater than a year ago.
