March Expansion Index Reaches Eighth Straight Month of Growth

KEY POINTS

• The ConstructConnect Expansion Index for March 2026 reached 1.14, reflecting a 14% growth in ideated construction investment compared to the previous year.

• Industrial and Commercial sectors led March’s expansion, with readings of 2.00 and 1.48, indicating that planned investment in these areas has doubled and increased by nearly 50% compared to the previous year.

• In March, 16 states demonstrated significant growth, with expansion of 10% or more in ideated project spending.  

The ConstructConnect Expansion Index for March 2026 reached 1.14, reflecting a 14% growth in ideated construction investment compared to the previous year. March’s total marks eight consecutive months of expansion.

As a result, ideated construction investment has consistently exceeded year-ago levels since August 2025, potentially signaling continued momentum for the industry.

Note: Ideated means any and all projects in some stage of preconstruction. This includes projects whose groundbreaking date may be many years in the future. All such future projects have no guarantee to either achieving a groundbreaking nor reaching to construction completion.

The ConstructConnect Expansion Index reading for March 2026 reached 1.14, reflecting a 14% growth in ideated construction investment compared to the previous year. March’s total marks eight consecutive months of expansion. Image and Data: ConstructConnect

Construction Sector Analysis

The Industrial and Commercial sectors led the way in March, posting the most significant expansion with readings of 2.00 and 1.48. This indicates that planned investment in these areas has doubled and increased by nearly 50% compared to the previous year.

Modest growth was also observed in the Government and Military sectors, with both showing increases of less than 5%.

Conversely, the remaining six verticals saw a contraction in planned spending compared to March 2025.

The Residential and Medical construction sectors experienced the most notable declines, with contractions greater than 10%. This continues a recent trend of reduced ideated investment for both of these verticals.

A chart of the Expansion Index by Subcategory is shown. Image and Data: ConstructConnect

Geographic Analysis by State 

In March, 16 states demonstrated significant growth, with expansion of 10% or more in ideated project spending.

Arizona led the nation with the highest Expansion Index reading, driven by growth in Industrial, especially within the Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale metropolitan statistical area (MSA), and strong Commercial investment in the Tucson MSA.

Following Arizona, Montana, and Missouri also showed robust expansion, buoyed by increased planning in Commercial and Military construction.

In contrast, 17 states experienced contractions of 10% or more in planned investment dollars, illustrating a varied regional outlook for future construction activity.

Note: High Expansion Index readings reflect growth in ideated investment dollars rather than project count, meaning a single large project can significantly impact a state’s index, particularly if the state has a smaller construction market.

What It Means for Construction 

The March Expansion Index reading points to continued momentum in ideated construction investment.

For eight straight months, the Expansion Index has remained above 1, suggesting significant opportunities for construction firms.

However, this growth is not uniform across geography nor vertical. Expansion has been concentrated in specific areas, with only four of the ten major construction categories and fewer than half of U.S. states seeing growth.

For firms to capitalize on the current growth, it is crucial to identify which specific sectors and regions are poised for future activity.
 

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