Construction Starts Economy

East North Central Dominates a Regionally Uneven Market; Mountain Comparison Again Distorted by 2025 Semiconductor Megaproject

KEY POINTS

  • Year-to-date through June, Nonresidential Building (NRB) starts are positive in seven of nine Census divisions.

  • East North Central leads at up 146.8%, driven by large scale project registrations in Illinois and Indiana.

  • Civil construction results through the year have been far less volatile, with six regions reporting change of less than 10%.

Year-to-date through June, Nonresidential Building (NRB) starts are positive in seven of nine Census divisions. East North Central leads at up 146.8%, driven by large scale project registrations in Illinois and Indiana.

The South Atlantic is up 40.0%, Middle Atlantic up 34.2%, and West South Central up 32.1%. New England added 7.3%, Pacific 6.3%, and West North Central 2.1%. East South Central is down 7.4%.

The significant decline in Mountain activity reflects the division’s 2025 surge in Nonresidential Building spending. The current-year total of $17.8 billion is only slightly below comparable YTD spending from 2023 ($20.6B) and 2024 ($19.0B).

2026-07 -- DIVISION_TTLNonResid_YTD% VIZ

Civil Construction 

Civil construction results through the year have been far less volatile, with six regions reporting change of less than 10%. The greatest strength is concentrated along the Eastern half of the nation with the Middle Atlantic, South Atlantic, and East North Central regions all up sharply by 29%, 26%, and 19% respectively.

Moving westward, conditions slow with 5% growth in the West South Central region which is dominated by Texas, 1% growth in the Mountains, and an 11% contraction along the West Coast. Taken together, six of nine divisions are running ahead of last year in total nonresidential starts through June, with the national total up 16.6%, or $67 billion in dollar terms.

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Collectively, the Midwest and South segments of the country led the way, reporting a YTD increase in spending of $83 billion. National results are considerably higher when removing the 47%, or $25 billion contraction in Mountain spending due largely to one megaproject in 2025. Excluding the impact of this one project, total YTD national growth increases from 16.6% as previously stated to 22.3%. 

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Michael Guckes, Chief Economist
Michael Guckes is regularly featured as an economics thought leader in national media, including USA Today, The Wall Street Journal, and Marketplace from APM. He started in construction economics as a leading economist for the Ohio Department of Transportation. He then transitioned to manufacturing economics, where he served five years as the chief economist for Gardner Business Media. He covered all forms of manufacturing, from traditional metalworking to advanced composites fabrication. In 2022, Michael joined ConstructConnect's economics team, shifting his focus to the commercial construction market. He received his bachelor’s degree in economics and political science from Kenyon College and his MBA from the Ohio State University.