KEY POINTS
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Year-to-date through May 2026, Nonresidential Building (NRB) starts are positive in five of nine Census divisions.
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Arizona’s NRB total for the first five months of 2025 was $30.8 billion; in the same period of 2026, it is $3.3 billion.
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Civil construction tells a different story: eight of nine divisions are positive through May, and the range of outcomes is far narrower than NRB.
East North Central Leads a Two-Speed Nonresidential Market
Year-to-date through May 2026, Nonresidential Building (NRB) construction starts are positive in five of nine Census divisions.
East North Central leads, up 187.8%, with Illinois and Indiana approaching 350% and 400%, respectively.
South Atlantic is up 44.6%, Middle Atlantic up 40.7%, Pacific up 23.9%, and West South Central up 23.8%. New England is down 17.8%, East South Central down 16.3%, and West North Central down 2.3%.
Mountain registers down 70.5% — a figure driven entirely by Arizona’s prior-year comparison, which included the $25 billion Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing plant in May 2025.
Arizona’s NRB total for the first five months of 2025 was $30.8 billion; in the same period of 2026, it is $3.3 billion.
Civil Construction Tells a Different Story
Civil construction tells a different story: eight of nine divisions are positive through May, and the range of outcomes is far narrower than NRB.
The fastest growing divisions, led by the Pacific at 49.3%, also include New England, up 36.3%, and Middle Atlantic, up 30.1%, and finally the East North Central at 20.3%. South Atlantic, East South Central, West South Central, and Mountain are each modestly positive in the 1% to8% range — notably, Mountain civil is up 1.3%, as Arizona’s semiconductor project had no material effect on civil starts.
West North Central is the only division running below last year, down 8.1%. Taken together, six of nine divisions are running ahead of last year in total Nonresidential starts, and the national total is up 17.6% through May.
Excluding the impact of the Taiwan Semiconductor plant in Arizona, Mountain’s reported total Nonresidential decline would reduce from a 56% contraction to a 19% decline.
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