The US Expansion Index for October 2025 was 1.08 and reflected an 8% year-over-year increase in planned construction investment, continuing three months of consecutive growth.
Industrial, Military, and Commercial sectors saw notable expansion, while Educational, Residential, Community, and Medical sectors faced ongoing declines in planned investment.
Construction activity remained geographically concentrated, with 15 states showing growth.
The ConstructConnect US Expansion Index for October 2025 came in at 1.08, meaning there was an 8% increase in planned construction investment compared to the same period in the prior year. This marks the third consecutive month of year-over-year (YoY) expansion following a three-month period of contractionary readings earlier this year.
Industrial development continues to see growth in ideated construction activity, recording a 2.05 reading for October. This indicates that ideated Industrial construction dollars have over doubled compared to the same month last year.
The substantial and sustained industrial growth reflects continued emphasis on expanding domestic manufacturing capacity in the United States. Military and Commercial sectors also saw meaningful growth at 1.24 and 1.17, respectively.
In contrast, the Educational, Residential, Community, and Medical sectors registered readings below 0.85, indicating significant contraction compared to October 2024.
These four categories have recorded multiple consecutive months of YoY declining planned investment, pointing to sustained softness in project pipelines across these markets.
The ConstructConnect Expansion Index for October 2025 was 1.08, indicating an 8% increase in planned US construction investment compared to the same period in the year prior. Image: ConstructConnect
State-level analysis shows 15 states achieving Expansion Index readings above 1.0 in October, up modestly from 13 states in September.
Arizona recorded the highest reading at 5.35, continuing multiple months of profound expansion, with the Industrial sector accounting for the majority of October’s ideated project activity expansion. Wyoming follows at 2.92, powered almost entirely by the Military sector, and North Dakota at 1.51.
A large majority of states experienced contraction in ideated activity compared to September 2024, demonstrating the concentration of construction planning.
This geographic pattern aligns with the growing influence of megaprojects in the construction industry, as these developments concentrate substantial investment into limited geographic areas.
The October figures highlight concentrated trends in construction planning across the United States. With expansion limited to 15 states and growth restricted to Industrial, Military, and Commercial sectors, the index reflects selective investment in location and category.
The influence of megaprojects continues to amplify the patterns, as large-scale developments direct lots of investment into limited areas.
What is the Expansion Index?
The ConstructConnect Expansion Index compares the total dollar value of construction projects in planning for the current month to the value of projects in planning for that same calendar month in the prior year.
The Expansion Index measures the dollar volume of pre-bid projects in ConstructConnect’s extensive database for states and metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) across the United States and Provinces/Territories and census metropolitan areas (CMAs) in Canada. This reflects all stages of preparation prior to construction field-work at the beginning of any given month this year, versus what was calculated at the same time last year. The types of structures included in these calculations are multi-family residential, nonresidential building, and civil/heavy engineering.
An index value less than 1.0 indicates a market potential that is flat or declining, while an index value above 1.0 speaks of market potential that is increasing. An Index value of 2.0 or more indicates the market potential is significantly greater than a year ago.
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