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Autumn Construction Starts Forecast: Civil Construction to Lead, Megaprojects Lift Outlook

KEY POINTS  

  • In our Autumn 2025 Construction Starts Forecast, ConstructConnect has slightly upgraded our 2025 outlook for total US Construction Starts to a 1% increase.

  • The revised outlook reflects cautious optimism despite persistent headwinds from higher costs and tariff uncertainty. 

  • Civil construction is forecast to remain the strongest summary category, but we have upgraded our Nonresidential Building outlook as large megaprojects support the sector’s performance.

In our Autumn 2025 Construction Starts Forecast, ConstructConnect has slightly upgraded our 2025 outlook for total U.S. construction starts to a 1% increase.

The revised outlook reflects cautious optimism despite persistent headwinds from higher costs and tariff uncertainty. The revision marks an improvement over earlier expectations, though the overall environment remains challenging.

Civil construction is forecast to remain the strongest summary category, but we have upgraded our Nonresidential Building outlook as large megaprojects support the sector’s performance. 

Residential starts are expected to decline across both Single- and Multi-Family construction.

US Construction Outlook

Civil to Lead Growth in 2025

ConstructConnect projects Civil construction will remain the strongest sector in 2025, providing stability as infrastructure activity offsets softer demand elsewhere. While macroeconomic headwinds continue to weigh on private investment, Civil work remains comparatively resilient, supported by federal and state funding pipelines.

Nonresidential Strengthened by Megaprojects

We upgraded its outlook for Nonresidential Building, citing continued strength from large-scale megaprojects. In Q2 2025, megaproject construction reached $68.4 billion in value across 21 projects, up year-over-year in both number and dollar terms. These projects, often planned years in advance, are helping stabilize the sector despite elevated costs and trade policy uncertainty.

Residential Construction: Another Year of Declines

Residential construction continues to lag, with starts forecast to decline across the Single-Family and Multi-Family segments. High mortgage rates, stretched affordability, and tight financial conditions keep buyers on the sidelines and developers cautious.

US Economic Backdrop

ConstructConnect expects real U.S. GDP to grow 1.6% in 2025, a modest upgrade from previous forecasts but still below long-term potential.

Rising prices, tighter credit, a weakening labor market, and ongoing uncertainty from US trade policy continue to pressure the economy.

The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady through 2025, with a single 25-basis-point cut likely in December.

Canadian Investment Pullback Continues

In Canada, total construction starts are projected to decline 7.7% in 2025, a slight improvement from prior expectations but still reflecting broad weakness. Both Residential and Nonresidential Building are expected to contract, while Civil will post only marginal growth.

Canadian construction activity has fallen sharply, with Q2 2025 starts down 35.7% year-over-year and 14.1% year-to-date. ConstructConnect forecasts GDP growth of 0.9% in 2025 and 0.4% in 2026, underscoring a slow recovery path.

Read the latest quarterly Construction Starts Forecast Report to get a five-year forecast of construction starts by type of structure and by state, as well as drivers influencing each building sector.

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Get the Autumn 2025 Construction Starts Forecast

About ConstructConnect

At ConstructConnect, our software solutions provide the information construction professionals need to start every project on a solid foundation. For more than 100 years, our insights and market intelligence have empowered commercial firms, manufacturers, trade contractors, and architects to make data-driven decisions and maximize productivity.

ConstructConnect is a business unit of Roper Technologies (Nasdaq: ROP), part of the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Fortune 1000.

For more information, visit constructconnect.com

Michael Guckes, Chief Economist
Michael Guckes is regularly featured as an economics thought leader in national media, including USA Today, Construction Dive, and Marketplace from APM. He started in construction economics as a leading economist for the Ohio Department of Transportation. He then transitioned to manufacturing economics, where he served five years as the chief economist for Gardner Business Media. He covered all forms of manufacturing, from traditional metalworking to advanced composites fabrication. In 2022, Michael joined ConstructConnect's economics team, shifting his focus to the commercial construction market. He received his bachelor’s degree in economics and political science from Kenyon College and his MBA from the Ohio State University.