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The Prospects for Billion-Dollar-Plus SMR and Fusion Nuclear Projects

KEY POINTS

  • Small modular reactors (SMRs) are gaining traction as a cost-effective, scalable alternative to traditional nuclear plants. Major investments are underway, and new designs are attracting international interest.

  • Fusion energy research is accelerating, with global collaboration and successful ignition tests at multiple facilities. 

  • Private sector momentum that is advancing fusion energy is growing. Despite commercial viability being a decade away, investor confidence in nuclear innovation is rapidly rising.

In my previous article on nuclear energy, I focused mainly on the traditional means of generating electricity by turning turbines with the aid of steamed water vapor produced by the heat of nuclear fission. Like everything else in the world these days, technology is evolving.

In this article, I continue to discuss the necessity of expanding nuclear power capacity, yet with an emphasis on small modular reactors, or SMRs, and the progress being made in fusion rather than fission.

TerraPower’s Natrium Reactor: A Game-Changer for Next-Gen Nuclear Energy

A company founded by Bill Gates, TerraPower, is initiating work on a demonstration nuclear power plant named Natrium in Kemmerer, Wyoming. Its cooling agent will be liquid sodium instead of water, a design change expected to lower the capital cost significantly. It will feature 345 megawatts of output, or nearly the power usage of 400,000 homes. If successful, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has indicated interest in purchasing several units.

[Read part 1 of this two-part article: A Positive Tipping Point for Billion-Dollar-Plus Nuclear Projects, by Alex Carrick]

natrium rendering terrapower

A rendering of a Natrium reactor and energy storage system that combines advanced nuclear technology with molten salt storage, enabling flexible, carbon-free power generation to meet peak energy demands. Image: TerraPower

Further, with respect to design change, a more compact version of nuclear plants is being adopted around the world, dubbed small modular reactors, or SMRs. The utility at the forefront of proceeding with SMR work in North America lies north of the border in Ontario.

Ontario’s Billion-Dollar SMR Investment and U.S. Interest in Modular Reactors

At its Darlington location, Ontario Power Generation (OPG) is planning to build four SMRs, with a groundbreaking on the first one well underway. Its joint venture collaborators are GE, Vernova, Hitachi Nuclear Energy, and Aecon Kiewit Nuclear Partners.

When all four SMRs are completed, their total cost will likely exceed $20 billion. Besides their more modest scope, the modular component of SMRs is helpful in keeping their price tag, if not bargain basement, at least within the realm of reason.

The State of Virginia’s power authority is said to be watching OPG’s SMR developmental progress with considerable interest and wondering if it should also adopt such a route.

nuclear plant differences smr IAEA Vargas

Small modular reactors (SMRs), shown in the middle panel of this comparison chart, have a power capacity of up to 300 megawatts per unit, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency. Many SMRs can be factory-built and then transported to a location for installation. Image: A. Vargas, International Atomic Energy Agency

Fusion Energy Milestones: ITER, WEST, and U.S. Tokamak Projects

The Holy Grail of nuclear energy is fusion (i.e., the forced coming together of nuclei) rather than fission (i.e., atoms splitting apart). The latter uses uranium, which has a harmful radiation half-life that extends seemingly forever. The former utilizes a substance termed plasma, which floats freely within a containment field created by powerful electromagnets. In the version of fusion considered most promising, the plasma consists of the hydrogen isotopes deuterium and tritium.

The most exhaustive fusion testing is currently taking place as a multi-nation (including China) collaboration near Cadarache in the south of France at the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER). Plus, there are some 20-odd other Tokamak reactor sites worldwide where success has finally been achieved in generating greater energy output than what is required as input. Each new timing increment in ‘ignition’ is greeted enthusiastically by the scientific community.

tokamak photoillustration shutterstock

A rendering of a nuclear fusion reactor, where the fusion of atoms produces energy, the process that powers the Sun. Image: Shutterstock

The longest period of ignition at present has lasted approximately 22 minutes. This was achieved at ITER’s WEST (West Environment in Steady-State Tokamak) laboratory reactor location. Two prominent U.S. tokamak reactor sites are the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (PPPL) and the General Atomics DIII-D National Fusion Facility.

As a sidebar, the electromagnets designed for the ITER site in France are said to be so powerful they could lift an aircraft carrier. Financially, undertaking something as grand in scale as the ITER project is not trivial. Its cost is in the tens of billions of dollars.

Private Sector Fusion Power: MIT Spin-Offs, Billionaire Investments, and Commercial Hopes

Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS) has announced that it intends to build the world’s first grid-scale commercial fusion power plant at the James River Industrial Park in Chesterfield County, Virginia. CFS is a private sector offshoot of research conducted at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Understandably, neither a cost estimate nor a timeline has yet been established and released.

As a further example of the collaborative efforts underway in the field of fusion, Type One Energy, springing from work done at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, is engaged with the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) in planning for the provision of future power needs.

Also, recent media reports have suggested that Amazon’s Jeff Bezos has joined a small group of investors offering seed money to a start-up company, General Fusion of Canada, based in British Columbia.

nuscale power smr

This image shows a rendering of the NuScale Power Module™ (NPM), the world’s first and only small modular reactor (SMR) to receive design approval from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Based on pressurized water reactor technology, the NPM is engineered to deliver flexible, carbon-free energy for diverse applications, including electricity generation, district heating, desalination, and commercial-scale hydrogen production. NuScale Power Modules measure 76 feet long by 15 feet in diameter, weigh approximately 700 tons, and are shipped in three segments via truck, rail, or barge. Image: NuScale Power

While the hype for fusion is gaining increasing traction, confirmed by the upsurge of related social media posts, commercially viable electric power stations are thought to be still, at best, a decade away.

That hasn’t stopped the research departments of brokerage firms from jumping on the nuclear equities investment bandwagon. Some of the companies mentioned in their newsletters to clients are: Cameco, a Canadian uranium supplier that also has a 49% stake in Westinghouse; Brookfield Renewable Partners, which holds the larger 51% share of Westinghouse; and Paladin Energy, which has 75% ownership of a large uranium mine in Namibia.

Continuing in the same vein, there is BWX Technologies, which plays a vital role in naval nuclear propulsion systems; GE Vernova, which is also big in the wind turbine business; Constellation Energy, the owner and operator of 21 nuclear plants in America and referred to frequently in my preceding article; and Corvallis, Oregon-based NuScale Power Corporation, a leading authority on SMRs.

 

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Alex Carrick
Alex Carrick served as Chief Economist at ConstructConnect for over 39 years. He retired in 2024.